Japan prepared a scenario of 20,000 Chinese people pouring into Senkaku / Diaoyu
When the Chinese haven strengthened access to the Senkaku / Diaoyu / Japan dispute island, Japan thought of the Armed conflict script.
This is a nightmare scenario for the Japan Coast Guard.
As the Chinese customs scene repeatedly "stalked" Japanese fishing vessels around the disputed Senkaku / Diaoyu island group this year, such scenarios are not unlikely to happen.
The PS206 Houou of the Japanese Coast Guard passed in front of Uotsuri Island, belonging to the Senkaku / Diaoyu Islands group in 2013. Photo: Reuters.
Under current law, Chinese fishermen landing on this group of islands will be considered a "gray zone" situation where the Japanese defense forces have not been able to intervene under the legal framework.
In addition, Masya Kato and Junnosuke Kobara, two editors of Nikkie Asia, said that China's ambitions for the islands may not stop at the infiltration of fishing vessels.
An expert invited to a meeting of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lawmakers last week revealed shocking information: China intends to reclaim the area around the Senkaku / Diaoyu island group.
In February, Beijing implemented laws that would permit the use of weapons against foreign ships in certain situations in the territorial waters of its "jurisdiction".
The Japanese government says the Police Mission Act allows ships of this country's force to open fire to prevent unauthorized intrusion by other ships.
However, the LDP defense policy lawmakers said the law was not enough and last week jointly proposed a bill to "fill the gaps".
Although President Joe Biden and a senior official in the administration reaffirmed that the Senkaku / Diaoyu island group is covered by Article 5 of the US-Japan Security Treaty, in which Washington has an obligation to defend Tokyo in a fight.
"It is not all that President Biden assures us that Article 5 applies to the Senkaku group of islands," said Seiji Maehara, Japan's former foreign minister and lawmaker for the Democrats for the People.
"The US cannot act unless Japan shows its willingness to fight to protect the island group," said a senior official in the Japanese government.
A separate LDP defense policy group will soon recommend the government to study the maritime records of coast guard patrol vessels.
Maritime activity of Chinese flag ships around the Senkaku / Diaoyu area has increased when the Japanese government nationalized the island group in 2012. Encounters on these waters have increased in recent years.
Masya Kato and Junnosuke Kobara, the two editors of Nikkie Asia, said that it was fortunate for Japan that the Biden White House showed a clear stance on the Senkaku / Diaoyu island group.
When former President Barack Obama in 2014 declared the Senkaku / Diaoyu island group included in Article 5 of the US-Japan Security Treaty, it marked the first time a US president said so.
The Senkaku / Diaoyu Islands group is controlled by Japan and claimed by China.
On March 26, when US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi in Tokyo, it was the US side who initiated the discussion on the disputed island group, according to sources close to the meeting.
Washington has a reason to concern about the situation of Senkaku Island / Diaoyu, according to Kato and Kobara.
Japan's aim is to increase its military presence in this area so that China will realize that attempting to take the island group by force has not been fruitful.
Eldridge said Japan needed to show its determination to defend the Senkaku / Diaoyu island group without hesitation in the face of a possible armed conflict.
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